The UK Heat Pump Market in 2026
The UK government has set a target of 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028. Against an estimated 60,000–80,000 installations in 2023–2024, this represents a 7–10x growth in installation volume over a 4–5 year period. Even if the government falls short of this target — which seems probable — the growth trajectory represents a significant market expansion.
The Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS), which provides £7,500 grants for air source heat pump installation, has driven growing consumer demand. The scheme is available until at least March 2028, providing a near-term demand driver for certified installers.
The key constraint is not consumer demand — it's installer capacity. The UK has approximately 3,000–4,000 MCS-certified heat pump installers against a target installation volume that requires 50,000+. This supply-demand imbalance means MCS-certified plumbers can command significantly premium rates for heat pump work.
What Certification Do Plumbers Need?
To install heat pumps under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (and access the grant funding that drives most installations), plumbers must hold:
- MCS certification — The Microgeneration Certification Scheme certification is the industry-standard quality mark for heat pump installation. It covers both the company and the individual installer. Without MCS, you cannot certify heat pump installations for grant purposes.
- Manufacturer or BPEC heat pump training — A practical heat pump installation course from a manufacturer (Worcester Bosch, Mitsubishi, Daikin, Vaillant) or training body (BPEC). Duration: typically 3–5 days. Cost: £500–£1,500 depending on the course.
- F-Gas certification — Not always required for air source heat pumps (which use pre-charged refrigerant circuits), but needed for some installations and for any refrigerant-related work. Cost: £200–£400.
MCS company certification involves: completing required training, having appropriate insurance and electrical qualifications (or partnerships with certified electricians), and demonstrating quality management processes. The application process takes 2–4 months and costs £1,500–£3,000 in fees and setup.
The total investment in heat pump certification: approximately £2,500–£5,000 and 3–6 months. Against earning potential, this payback period is typically under 6 months for an active heat pump installer.
The Economics of Heat Pump Installation
Heat pump installation is significantly higher-value than boiler replacement:
- Air source heat pump installation: Total job value £7,000–£15,000 (equipment and installation), after the £7,500 BUS grant that goes directly to the installer. Customer net cost: £2,500–£7,500 depending on specification.
- Installer margin: Heat pump installations typically generate 25–40% higher margin per hour than equivalent boiler work. The equipment costs are higher, but MCS-certified installer day rates (£450–£700/day) reflect the specialist skills involved.
- Annual servicing: Heat pumps require annual servicing, creating recurring revenue at £120–£180/year per unit. A portfolio of 50 installed heat pumps generates £6,000–£9,000 in annual service revenue.
The economics strongly favour developing heat pump capability for any plumbing business with the capacity to invest in training and certification.
Getting Started: The Practical Path
For a UK plumber interested in entering the heat pump market, the practical steps:
- Complete a manufacturer heat pump training course — Worcester Bosch, Vaillant, Mitsubishi, and Daikin all run training programmes through their training centres. Attendance takes 3–5 days and provides the technical foundation. Cost: £500–£1,500.
- Complete BPEC or HETAS heat pump qualification — A recognised qualification (BPEC Level 3 Heat Pump Award, City & Guilds 6189) provides a formal credential and is required for some MCS pathways. Duration: 3–5 days, cost: £600–£1,200.
- Apply for MCS certification — Through an MCS certification body (HIES, RECC, MCS). Submit your application with training certificates, insurance evidence, and quality management documentation. Allow 2–4 months for assessment.
- Register with the Boiler Upgrade Scheme — Via the MCS portal once certified. This allows you to issue BUS vouchers to customers, making your installations eligible for the £7,500 grant.
- Market your new capability — Update your website, Google Business Profile, and Checkatrade profile to highlight heat pump installation. Contact previous boiler customers whose systems are aging and approaching replacement.
Which Plumbers Are Best Placed to Enter the Market
Not every plumber will benefit equally from heat pump specialisation. The best-placed businesses:
- Existing heating engineers with strong central heating knowledge. Heat pump installation builds on the same refrigerant and hydronic fundamentals as boiler work — the transition is more manageable than for a water-only plumber.
- Rural and off-gas-grid specialists — Properties not connected to the gas grid have limited options beyond oil boilers or LPG. Heat pumps are the natural replacement, and rural properties without gas often have better heat pump performance characteristics (space for outdoor units, lower building density, garden space).
- Businesses targeting the premium residential market — Heat pump customers tend to be environmentally aware, financially comfortable homeowners investing in their home. This demographic aligns with premium bathroom installation and high-value domestic work.
- Businesses already servicing properties with underfloor heating — Heat pumps work best with underfloor heating or large-format radiators. Plumbers with existing underfloor heating customer bases have a natural upsell path.